Why you CAN see them coming, and how to not have to deal with them when learning or progressing in how to sail a boat.
It is time.
…for our pretty-much annual warning Rant on thunderstorms, and the most dangerous aspect of them: the false idea that you can’t see them coming. And, it’s getting worse again with not just tornado watches (conditions favorable for them to develop), but actual – if small – fucking tornados in and near NYC.

Of course, there was a time when you had to intuit it. Check the forecast; watch the sky. Understand weather and fronts a bit. Bandy it about with other sailors locally who know a thing or two cuz they’ve seen a thing or two.
Then, we got the addition of weather alerts on VHF radios. Good for when you weren’t looking enough yourself, or to know when it’s so bad, that it’s already hit elsewhere and it’s coming for you soon.
Next: smartphones and apps.
Zero remaining excuses, same math as the number of fucks the weather gives when we’re out recreating in it.
Today’s radar as of 12:22 in the PM, July 28 (day this was posted):
And, this was the general forecast for the day, screen-shot around the same time. Add the two together, plus the fact that the radar showed it all moving west to east (left to right, which is most common here), AND the hourly trend (not shown), and you get the picture: not worth it. Live to sail another day.

1998: we got spanked in a thunderstorm, but it would have been much worse if we hadn’t already been on notice and taken every precaution except actually remaining ashore. So, when it hit, the class was already approaching the mooring when conditions didn’t look or feel good. They just missed the mooring on the first shot. no problem… except that’s when it hit! Just after missing. No specific visible warning or sense of timing. Just that we didn’t feel good about it any more. And then the sails were flogging furiously and the boat was leaning over.
A sail was torn, and the boat was scuffed a bit. The boat blew up against the neighboring pier, and the people hopped up onto that. We used two motorboats to pull the sailboat away from the pier and hang until the breeze let up before towing it to the mooring. No big deal.
If we’d had a Barbie on board, she might have looked a bit like this…

But, at Manhattan Yacht Club/Sailing School, a family of three (including a 11 y/o daughter) plus two friends were out on one of the club/school boats. They were apparently near the Statue of Liberty, although at the time word on the dock was that they might have been out past the Verrazano Bridge. Either way, it was the same price: they took a knockdown and probably capsized. Husband’s body was found days later (in Gravesend Bay if memory serves). And, it was reported at the time that he wasn’t wearing a life jacket/PFD. Otherwise, he should have been fine.
Fast forward to 2010. Happened again. Same shit; different docks, so to speak. This time, our school, which is called New York Sailing CENTER, was on high alert. We knew that a very serious system was working its way down from upstate, where there had already been a fatality or two. Forecast was as dire as the one from 1998; severe thunderstorms, surrounded by large areas of clear air, little warning, etc. Not a chance to see it coming, really… at least with the naked eye.
But, RADAR!
We all have access to real-time Radar imagery to show the prior track of storms over x amount of time, and therefore plenty of notice of where it’s headed. These things can wiggle a little, and they can either build up more or die down, but they don’t zig-zag or change their mind. They keep coming. And, this one was so large, it was gonna engulf the whole region.
So, we stayed very close, and planned to come in hours before there was a chance the storm could reach our area. I was the instructor. I got a call from a graduate who wanted to come out and practice. I said no; told him about he conditions. He kept asking; what if this, what if that… (come early/leave early, stay close, are you sure, etc). I insisted no. He wasn’t picking up what I was putting down.
”No fucking way! I’m not going to have you come out here to practice just to die in a violent thunderstorm.” He got the message; end of convo.
I also heeded the message and went in. When moored and waiting for the launch/tender, I check the radar again. Whoooaaahhhh… If a Star Wars Death Star ship and an Independence Day invading spacecraft had a baby, and turned it into a storm, and that baby grew up to be an adult, this is what it would look like. Huge, semi-rectangular (almost square), super obvious mass of violent weather. Purple/red everywhere except for orange and yellow at the fringes. Green? Fuck NO, green! (If you’ve never seen Robin Williams stand-up bit about the origins of golf, go find it. You’re welcome.)
So, I told the launch operator for the day to go grab a long lunch somewhere on the Avenue, or do something else “inland” and not by the water. I said don’t come back until I tell you. Launch service OVER. There was no one else out to pick up, although one mooring customer took the last ride out to sit on his boat to check the bilge and moorings and wait for us to come get him later (large stable boat on a good mooring, or we would have said nah).
I took my group to a pub for lunch. Took awhile. I wanted it that way. No temptation to try to get anywhere after lunch but before the storm hit. And, it took awhile. But it hit. We were way in the back of the place, not near the street. But it suddenly got very dark. We could see debris swirling around in the air as if it were a tornado (and it could have been a low-grade one). It soon stopped. We wrapped up and got the check, and stepped outside.
It was sunny and calm. There was a ridiculous amount of debris of all kinds everywhere, including parts of trees. Total obstacle course getting back to the marina. When we arrived, we saw glassy calm water everywhere with more debris on the surface than I’d ever seen before, anywhere.
Then, I got a text from a friend who was an ASA Instructor Evaluator (ran clinics for them to certify new and advancing instructors; now called Master Instructors). He told me that New York Sailing SCHOOL (not Center) lost someone in the storm that just hit. NYSS, for short, was the former family business that my father had sold in 1986/87, and had been sold again since or was being managed full time by someone else.
How did that happen?
They, like we, had a class that day. Differences:
- Our’s was a day 3; there’s was a day 1.
- We started early and ended very early. They were still out when the storm hit.
- We were all wearing PFD’s (life jackets). NONE of them were.
- Their boat took a complete knockdown: basically capsized for a moment.
- Some or all of the people on board went in the water. Reports are inconsistent. But, all reports confirm that the instructor himself was in the water.
- One student never made it back to the boat. His body was found a few days later.
There was a lot of talk at that time about how you can’t see these things coming. I know several people (besides the instructor who basically killed the student in New Rochelle) who were out on the water at the time in the area. Some were extremely experienced boaters. And, they got caught in that storm. In one case, two of 5 people on a sailboat got separated from the boat they fell off of. They were fine; rescued by a passing powerboat when it was safe and taken to a different port, to be reunited with the others later. But it could have gone down differently. One difference that prevented that: one or both of the people who got separated were wearing PFD’s, and the one who might not have been could handle it. Not condoning it; but, truth is, he’s freakish tough and also kewl under pressure. (I knew him well personally.)
Everyone I spoke to said the same thing: you couldn’t see it coming.
Yeah? THEN HOW COME I DID?!
And, how do you?
- Get used to interpreting what you’re seeing on the radar loop in conjunction with the forecast. So, get apps: for radar, marine weather, or both. Don’ rely on just one.
- Before even leaving home or work to go to the marina/club/beach/what have you: check the forecast carefully for not just now, but the evening/night.
- Very often, you’ll see predictions that say something like “chance of showers and thunderstorms.” hell – that used to be most summer afternoons.
- If it says “Severe thunderstorms,” or “some of which could be severe,” ask yourself why you’re going down there. Probably better to not do so. You’re at risk just traveling down there or back after you don’t go boating. If it’s doomier/gloomier than this, then def don’t go.
- If it’s more garden-variety, and you choose to head out, don’t start up the boat, unfurl sails, etc, until you’ve checked the update. AND, THE RADAR! Forecast is for what they think will happen. Radar is what it saw before and sees NOW.
- Have plans for what you’ll do if your gamble comes back to kick your ass: how you’ll get back in or duck into another safe area, anchor, drop sails, use engine, etc. Have redundancies.
- Have a fully charged cell phone that’s submersible, and attached to you with some kind of leash.
- Have a fully charged, late-model, floating handheld VHF radio that you’re familiar with.
The main thing is: most people probably shouldn’t go when they’re wondering if they should. And, no one should if the forecast is “elevated,” meaning chance of severe thunderstorms, or worse. Or, regardless of the forecast, if the radar looks like one of those death clouds. It’s just not worth it.

You can’t always catch a small pop-up storm on the radar. But you most certainly CAN see the worst storms coming.












































